This demographic change and the resulting increased demand for workers has implications for both employees and employers. “Canadian workers want better quality jobs,” Dr. Sweetman says. “The high demand will reduce income inequality, which is good, but it also makes hiring staff more expensive.” the health care system had to make up for all the care that didn’t occur during the pandemic. Demand for nurses went up, but the number of nurses was stable, according to Dr. Sweetman. “And you can’t flip a switch to suddenly increase the number of nurses. It takes at least three years of education, usually more,” he says. “So, nurses currently have the opportunity to change jobs easily looking for better situations and better pay.” Dr. Sweetman’s team has also explored the labour force of personal support workers (PSWs) in long-term care (LTC) facilities. “There is a hypothesis in the media that employers in the retail sector, for example, were competing for those working as PSWs with comparable or better wages combined with better working conditions and that this might tempt a large number of PSWs to exit the occupation,” Dr. Sweetman says. “But what we found was that, although there were exceptions, most PSWs were unionized, their wages were not as low as people thought, and occupational exit is not excessive.” There are problems in some locations, but the challenges do not seem to be sector wide. “Of course, during the early waves of COVID-19, self-isolation and other infection prevention and control procedures, together with other challenges faced in the LTC sector and in society as a whole, severely affected PSWs and other LTC workers’ ability to provide services to residents,” says Dr. Sweetman. He also explains that in the next few years, as the leading edge of the Baby Boom generation enters their late 70s and early 80s, there will be a significant increase in the demand for PSWs and other relevant health and social service care providers. The Influence of Education and Gender The 2021 Canadian census shows that 58% of adults age 25 to 64 have college or university credentials. “Roughly 20% of my birth cohort went to university,” says Dr. Sweetman. “But among the people who graduate high school this year, at least 40% will go to university and 75% will go to postsecondary broadly defined. That’s a dramatic increase.” Educational attainment changes occupational structures and the expectations of workers. “Thirty years ago, tuition was relatively inexpensive and often physicians, dentists and other health care workers could graduate without high debt loads,” says Dr. Sweetman. “Education was subsidized more by the government. However, now that cost burden has been shifted to individual students. This shift is creating substantial challenges for new health care professionals as they enter the workforce.” In 2021, 36% of women aged 25 to 64 years had a bachelor’s degree or higher, which was almost three times The Effect of the Pandemic “The pandemic was a shock, of course, and the unemployment rate went up suddenly. Subsequently, workers were much slower to return to work than many employers hoped,” says Dr. Sweetman. He contends that the slow return in the face of above-normal demand was due to three main factors: 1) government programs successfully protected many Canadians financially during shutdowns, 2) many workers were apprehensive about returning to inperson work because of the risk of contracting COVID-19, and 3) childcare disruptions prevented many workers, especially women, from being able to return to work. High inflation and the resulting increase in interest rates also influenced people’s decisions to return to work. “Mortgage payments increased, and salaries didn’t go as far buying necessities than they had previously. This forced people to re-enter the workforce or work more hours,” says Dr. Sweetman. At present, employment levels in Canada are high. The unemployment rate as of January 2024 was 5.7%, which is lower than almost all periods since modern measurement started in 1976. “In some industries, there are still unmet labour needs,” says Dr. Sweetman. “But the effect of the pandemic has largely leveled off and what we are now dealing with are more long-term drivers of change as well as shocks from international events.” Dr. Sweetman and his colleagues at McMaster University have studied the nursing labour force in Canada. “There was a strong sense among the general public that there was a shortage of nurses and that nurses were leaving the profession,” he says. “But when you look at the data, there is substantial employer-to-employer turnover among nurses, but very few have left the profession altogether.” The pandemic increased demand for nurses, first because so many more people were in hospital and then because The effect of the pandemic has largely leveled off and what we are now dealing with are more long-term drivers of change as well as shocks from international events. 36 | 2024 | Issue 3 Issues and People
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